TV predictions for the new season: 44 new shows (2016-17)
As regular readers will likely remember, I watch a lot of TV series. I can wax and wane on the merits of serialized story-telling in movies and books too, but each fall I look over the news of upcoming TV shows like fantasy football players scout rosters, looking for the hidden gems. The Carson Palmer who breaks out in their rookie season to dominate over many otherwise-average veterans. Mostly I know the likelihood of finding that gem, having it garner enough ratings to make it full season, or even the holy grail, to garner enough for renewal, is a fairly low percentage. But I like to predict anyway. This year I am going all-in on my analysis of the new shows…I’m predicting their outcome before they have even aired an episode, just based on past shows that were similar, who the stars are, and whether the premise is something that seems like it will catch on or is just some weird network president throwing anything at the wall to see if it will stick.
| SHOW | NETWORK | DESCRIPTION | WILL I WATCH | LENGTH PREDICTION | RENEWAL PREDICTION |
| 24: Legacy | FOX | I expect it to easily survive the 12 episode run that it has been approved for, and go beyond. It’s a proven franchise, and the Live Another Day short-run series had good enough ratings to green-light this one without Jack Bauer. | No | Full | Renewal |
| American Housewife | ABC | A brash mother of three, doing something or other with richer folk. I fell asleep reading the description. Wasn’t it called Grace Under Fire the last time it was tried? | No | 4 episodes | Early cancellation |
| APB | FOX | A mid-season replacement with a tech billionaire running Chicago PD. Could be Person of Interest, could be RoboCop, could be Minority Report. | Will try 1 EP | Half | No renewal |
| Blacklist: Redemption | NBC | The show has a great pedigree in the original show, if it sticks more to season 1 than the last one. I like the characters individually as secondary characters, but making them the main characters and as mother/son is hard to predict. Father/daughter works for Red/Lizzie but only because his “evil” is matched by her “goodness”. These two are more “bad cop, worse cop”. | Yes | Half | No renewal |
| Bull | CBS | Michael Weatherly exited NCIS and has his own show! How exciting! He’s “smart” in this one…which I know as he’s wearing glasses! And he’s a trial consultant. Sounds good…wait, he’s Dr. Phil? Umm… | Will try 1 EP | Half | No renewal |
| Chicago Justice | NBC | Dick Wolf adds a fourth series inside the State’s Attorney’s office. Slam dunk, and not interested. Particularly with Carl Weathers as a “star”. | No | Half | Renewal |
| Conviction | ABC | A conviction integrity unit in NY looking for wrongful convictions? An interesting yet bizarre premise that will be hard to sell in ongoing investigations — either they show incompetence or malice in how the cops and lawyers got convictions. Neither sounds watchable. | Will try 1 EP | Half | No renewal |
| Designated Survivor | ABC | Jack Ryan becomes President when everyone else is killed and they have to rebuild the Cabinet, House and Senate. Oh, wait, it isn’t the Tom Clancy book, so not Jack Ryan. “Tom Kirkman” played by Jack Bauer. Err, I mean Kiefer Sutherland. But they promise it will be a balanced West Wing with both sides of an argument being presented…zzzz. | Will try 1 EP | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Doubt | CBS | A defense attorney falling for her client. I want to call it quits, but after miss-predicting Madam Secretary, this one likely has some legs. Katherine Heigl’s in fact. Sounds like it will be How to Get Away With Romance but someone watches it. | Will try 1 EP | Half | Renewal |
| Downward Dog | ABC | Show told from PoV of the star’s dog. Umm… | No | 2 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Emerald City | NBC | Land of Oz, but dark and edgy. Oh, look, someone found a way to copy Once Upon A Time. And if it goes horrible, Shaun Cassidy can show up and sing. | Will try 1 EP | Half | Renewal |
| The Exorcist | Fox | Horror remake, with two priests. It has Geena Davis? What? | No | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Frequency | CW | Two detectives separated in time, communicate by ham radio. If they can make it like Cold Case or something, might have something interesting to watch. Or it could be like Minority Report’s precog knowledge except post-cog. | Will try 1 EP | Half | No renewal |
| The Good Place | NBC | Redemption in the afterlife. Been there, skipped that. | No | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| The Great Indoors | CBS | Reporter managing millennials. Pass | No | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Great News | NBC | News producer with Mom intern. Andrea Martin? Good god, no. But somebody watches this crap. | No | Half | Renewal |
| Imaginary Mary | ABC | Jenna Elfman’s back? Dating guy and 3 kids, seeing imaginary friend. Riiighht. Cuz that won’t get old or stupid. | No | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Kevin Can Wait | CBS | Retired cop, facing home life. But it’s Kevin James, so a safe bet. | No | Full | Renewal |
| Lethal Weapon | FOX | Okay, so I’m not someone who thinks that trying to adapt a movie to a TV series is automatically going to suck. Sure, just about every attempt has sucked, but it isn’t guaranteed. But when you take Riggs and Murtaugh, and you make Damon Wayans Murtaugh? That’s just flat out ridiculous. And not in a good way | Will try 1 EP | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| MacGyver | CBS | Reboot OF MacGyver, Hard to avoid a cheese factor, but then Scorpion keeps getting renewed somehow too. | Will try 1 EP | Half | No renewal |
| Making History | FOX | Three friends who travel through time. | Yes | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Man With A Plan | CBS | Matt Leblanc as stay at home dad. No, no, no, no and oh, yeah, no again. | No | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Marlon | CBS | Marlon Wayans pretending to be Chris Rock, I guess. Based on Marlon’s life. | No | Half | No renewal |
| The Mick | FOX | Hustler inherits nieces and nephews. It entirely hangs on Olson as the star, and how annoying the nieces and nephews are. Plus whether it becomes a Wilford Brimley G-rating or goes edgy. She’s a hustler, there has to be some edge right? | Will try 1 EP | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Midnight, Texas | NBC | With a bunch of supernatural shows biting the dust, this one might succeed. Depends on if they go for True Blood-style graphic content, or go for broader stream “bump in the night”. | Will try 1 EP | Half | Renewal |
| No Tomorrow | CW | “Brazilian format”? Ticking off bucket lists for two. Either REALLY annoying or could be fun. | Will try 1 EP | Half | No renewal |
| Notorious | ABC | Piper Perabo plays Annie Walker, a new recruit to the CIA.. .oh, wait, no, it’s WENDY Walker, a cable news producer. With a criminal defense attorney, high media blitz, etc. | Yes | Full | No renewal |
| Pitch | FOX | First woman to play in MLB. The Bad News Bears turn pro? | No | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Powerless | NBC | Comedy about insurance adjusters dealing with damage caused by superheroes? Sounds quirky, just don’t know if it will be funny enough. | Yes | Half | Renewal |
| Prison Break | FOX | Reboot / continuance. Cuz that went SO WELL for Heroes. Pass | No | Half | No renewal |
| Pure Genius | CBS | Millionaire plays God with hospital that will do risky procedures. Pass for me, but always room at the table for a medical drama if the stars are palatable. | No | Full | No renewal |
| Riverdale | CW | The Archie comics. I have absolutely no clue if this is even remotely got a shot. But it’s Greg Berlanti as a producer, so I’ll give it a go. | Yes | Half | Renewal |
| Shots Fired | FOX | The show lists Helen Hunt and Richard Dreyfuss as being in the cast, which seems just wacky when the main “investigators” are two others. The premise is basically “Black Lives Matter” in Tennessee. But it would seem more like a movie of the week than ready for season 2? | No | Half | No renewal |
| Son of Zorn | FOX | Perhaps the weirdest show of the fall, we have an animated He-man-like character trying to connect with his human son and ex-wife. | Will try 1 EP | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Speechless | ABC | Minnie Driver, mother of three, one who is special needs. Zzzzzzzzzzz. | No | 2 EPs | Early cancellation |
| Star | FOX | Three young singers trying to make it big. Not for me, but Empire is hugely popular with some demographics, so might work. | No | Half | No renewal |
| Still Star-crossed | ABC | Romeo and Juliet part two. Doesn’t interest me, but if they give it a bit of a Game of Thrones intrigue factor, could have a hit. | No | Half | Renewal |
| Taken | NBC | A young ass-kicking Liam Neeson…err, young version of Neeson’s character. Right. With Jennifer Beals. Ever since Castle, I won’t trust her in the CIA, but a one man team show that isn’t MacGyver? Sure, count me in. Just like last year with The Player. | Yes | Half | No renewal |
| This Is Us | NBC | Ensemble dramedy with group who share same birthday and life intersections. | Will try 1 EP | Half | No renewal |
| Time After Time | ABC | H.G. Wells vs. Jack the Ripper and time travel. Hell yes. No chance at renewal but I’ll watch while it’s on. | Yes | Half | No renewal |
| Timeless | NBC | A team travels through time to defeat Vandal Savage…err, wait, no that’s the other time-traveling criminal show. This one has a team of three chasing somebody else. No matter, it’s time travel! I’m in! | Yes | Half | No renewal |
| Training Day | CBS | Bill Paxton as a morally questionable detective. Umm. Sorry, can’t see it. I’m out. | No | Half | No renewal |
| Trial and Error | NBC | New York lawyer goes to Southern town for murder case. With Lithgow. If Lithgow was the lawyer, I’d think, “Great! Give it a go!”. I wouldn’t watch, but I could see it. Instead, they have the lawyer being the young Michael J. Fox type role from Doc Hollywood or something. I don’t see it gelling. | No | 4 EPs | Early cancellation |
Here’s a summary of my predictions by network:
| Network | Total | Won’t watch | Try 1 EP | Will watch | 4 EPs | Half-season | Full season | Early cancel | No renewal | Renewal |
| FOX | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 |
| ABC | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| NBC | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| CBS | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| CW | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 44 | 21 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 18 | 11 |
Looks like I’m going to give Fox and NBC a try this year. Although with estimating five renewals, I am sure I am giving NBC way too much credit to stick with shows long enough to do that.
