Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows — renewal for another season, or cancellation. However, I must admit, my approach has lacked a fair amount of finesse as I generally went by whether the show was worth keeping, absent any consideration of the network’s ability to cancel everything bad and only keep the good stuff.

Take ABC for instance. Last year, of 24 scripted shows, they cancelled 10 and renewed 14. However, of the 10 cancelled, only 4 were new shows. In other words, they cancelled 6 of their pre-existing shows. Of the 14 renewals, only 3 were newbies; the rest were roll-overs. So, looking at ABC for this year, I want to try and take that approach into account.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

• The Middle
• Black-ish
• The Goldbergs
• Speechless
• Modern Family
• American Housewife
• Designated Survivor
• Grey’s Anatomy
• Scandal

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

• Fresh Off The Boat
• How to Get Away With Murder – I’m taking a flyer on this one, finishing season 4 and then dying, particularly with the new Shondaland theme park over at Netflix;
• Once Upon A Time – Too many changes, too many departures, too much cost cutting to be viable, time to end;

New shows that I think will make it:

• The Good Doctor – Think “House” meets “Rainman”, and while I wouldn’t bet the farm on it’s renewal, it’s an in-house co-production;
• The Mayor – rapper pulls prank to get noticed, gets elected…normally I would say cancel, but also in-house for ABC with other producers they’re already in bed with;
• Marvel’s Inhumans – ABC really wants to be in the superhero game, and this is what they have to work with;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

• Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night.
• Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down;

That’s all I have for their premiere list so far…let’s see how I do. I should be honest too in my own evaluation — only the ones in red are ones that I watch or will give a chance to in my watching.