Way back at the start of the television season, I tried to predict the success factor for all the new shows as to whether or not they were likely to get renewal for a second season. Let’s see how I did…

The first group were the ones I predicted renewal for, and there were 12.

• ABC: The Good Doctor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
• ABC: The Mayor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED — after watching one EP, it was pretty clear it would be cancelled though
• ABC: Marvel’s Inhumans – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED — although watching the EPs, that’s not too surprising
• CBS: Young Sheldon – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
• CBS: S.W.A.T. – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
• CW: Black Lightning – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
• OX: The Gifted – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  
• FOX: The Orville – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
• FOX: The Resident – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
• NBC: Champions – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is LIKELY CANCELLED
• NBC: Rise – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED
• NBC: Will and Grace – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED.

So I got 8/12 right. Much better than I did last year (where it was more 50/50). If I had waited to watch the first few EPs before I predicted, I would have at least went to 10/12 right…I never watched Champions or Rise.

The second group of shows were ones where I was predicting cancellation, with 16 predicted to circle the drain. Again, let’s see how I did:

• ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• CBS: 9JKL – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  
• BS: Me, Myself and I – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• BS: Seal Team – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
• CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• CW: Dynasty – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
• CW: Life Sentence – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• CW: Valor – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• FOX: L.A. to Vegas – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is LIKELY RENEWED
• FOX: Ghosted – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is LIKELY CANCELLED
• NBC: The Brave – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• NBC: A.P. Bio – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
• NBC: Good Girls – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
• NBC: Law & Order: True Crime – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
• NBC: Reverie – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is unknown.

Of the 15 where the outcome is mostly known, I only got 10 right (2/3). However, for at least two more of the “wrong ones” i.e. ones that were renewed, others were surprised by those renewal notes since the ratings kind of sucked. Which means I was right about the ratings, but they got renewed anyway. Weird. That would have taken me to 12/15 or 80%.

Overall I have 8+10 = 18 out of 27, or 2/3. If I adjusted for the actual shows and ignoring surprises, I would have had closer to 22/27 or 80%.

Better than last year at least. I’m improving 🙂