Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows. And I post my predictions for what they’re worth, knowing sometimes I go as low as 50% right and 50% wrong! Mostly because I don’t take into account differences between networks and other factors, I just go by quality or basic delivery on a viable show premise.

This year, I tried to improve my predictions with a bit more business model consideration:

• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: ABC
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: CBS
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: CW
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: Fox
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: NBC

In the end though, what I’m really interested in are the new shows. From the lineups, it’s a quirky bunch of shows. Here’s my take on what will make it:

• ABC: The Good Doctor – Think “House” meets “Rainman”, and while I wouldn’t bet the farm on it’s renewal, it’s an in-house co-production so likely RENEWED;
• ABC: The Mayor – rapper pulls prank to get noticed, gets elected…normally I would say cancel, but also in-house for ABC with other producers they’re already in bed with, so likely RENEWED;
• ABC: Marvel’s Inhumans – ABC really wants to be in the superhero game, and this is what they have to work with, so RENEWED;
• CBS: Young Sheldon – well, duh, it could die a 1000 times and it will likely get renewed just to keep tweaking it until it works, so RENEWED;
• CBS: S.W.A.T. – With H50 and MacGyver not strong enough to continue in my view, I’m going to bet on another throwback continuing with this one, so RENEWED;
• CW: Black Lightning – It’s all Berlanti, all the time, it would be crazy to bet against it, even without the Arrowverse tie-ins, RENEWED;
• FOX: The Gifted – Fox wants to expand into the superhero world too, after their relative success with Gotham, RENEWED;
• FOX: The Orville – I’m totally on the line with this one, but they do like pseudo comic shows, even sci fi spoofs, RENEWED;
• FOX: The Resident – A medical show with hot actors? Yeah, they’ll try real hard to keep it, RENEWED;
• NBC: Champions – Two and a Half Men found an audience, this should find the same one even without Charlie Sheen, RENEWED;
• NBC: Rise – Mr. Holland’s Opus meets Glee, yep, it might find an audience, RENEWED;
• NBC: Will and Grace – duh, RENEWED;

However, I think the following shows are unlikely to find their groove:

• ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night – CANCELLED;
• ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down – CANCELLED;
• CBS: 9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings – CANCELLED;
• CBS: Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly – CANCELLED;
• CBS: Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series – CANCELLED;
• CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years – CANCELLED;
• CW: Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in – CANCELLED;
• CW: Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show – CANCELLED;
• CW: Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great – CANCELLED;
• FOX: L.A. to Vegas – Workplace comedy? Sure. Airlines to Vegas? Umm, no – CANCELLED;
• FOX: Ghosted – Men in Black, weekly? With extra comedy? Yeah, that’s going to need a lot of work to keep it fresh – CANCELLED;
• NBC: The Brave – Elite undercover military heroes…umm, no – CANCELLED;
• NBC: A.P. Bio – bio teacher using nerds to attack the person who stole his dream job…umm, also no – CANCELLED;
• NBC: Good Girls – Thelma and Louise meets Breaking Bad? … can I get a “hell, no” – CANCELLED?
• NBC: Law & Order: True Crime – great idea, lousy premise for the case – CANCELLED;
• NBC: Reverie – Save people from a VR game? Love the premise, hate its chances – CANCELLED;

Of the new shows, I’m predicting 12 will make it and 16 won’t. That still seems high, likely more around 8 make it and 20 won’t. But hard to tell. Guess I’ll see at the end of the season.