season – Page 7 – The PolyBlog

It’s the start of the new TV season, and time to predict the survival outcome for all the new shows. Last year I made it to almost 80%, which I was particularly happy with…I do two predictions — one based on just the description, and an updated one after I have watched the premieres. Most of the time, there’s no change between the two. 🙂 Let’s see how I do this year…

Show	Description	Prediction based on description	Prediction based on premiere
Mayans M.C. (FX)	Spin-off of Sons of Anarchy	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
The Purge (USA)	Based on low-rated movie	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Kidding (Showtime)	Jim Carrey, family life	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Rel (Fox)	Single father after cheating wife, comedy	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
You (Lifetime)	Stalker bookstore manager	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
The First (Hulu)	First astronauts on Mars…will Beta be there too, like Defying Gravity?	CANCELLATION	RENEWAL
Forever (Amazon)	Married couple go on ski trip to shake up routine	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Dead Lucky (Sundance Now)	Detectives after cop killer	RENEWAL	CANCELLATION
The Good Cop (Netflix)	Tony Danza and Josh Groban	RENEWAL	CANCELLATION
Magnum, P.I. (CBS)	Reboot, slight tweaks	CANCELLATION	RENEWAL
Manifest (NBC)	Plane lands after being missing 5 years	CANCELLATION	RENEWAL
FBI (CBS)	Hey, look, a story about the FBI	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Mr. Inbetween (FX)	Half-hour drama with criminal	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
New Amsterdam (NBC)	Hospital drama about idealism	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
A Million Little Things (ABC)	The Big Chill after an elevator meeting, and a suicide	CANCELLATION	RENEWAL
Single Parents (ABC)	Training the single dad	RENEWAL	CANCELLATION
Murphy Brown (CBS)	Reboot	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
The Cool Kids (Fox)	A co-ed version of The Golden Girls	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
God Friended Me (CBS)	Literally friends on FB with God. Well that should save on fancy sets compared to Kevin Probably Saves the World or simple home sets for Joan of Arcadia	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
The Neighborhood (CBS)	Friendly mid-westerner moves to LA	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Happy Together (CBS)	Damon Wayans Jr. (!) as star living with family	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
I Feel Bad (NBC)	Oh, look a story about a mom with lame plot ideas each week	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Into The Dark (Hulu)	Anthology horror series	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
All American (CW)	Friday Night Lights meets Beverly Hills 90210	CANCELLATION	RENEWAL
The Romanoffs (Amazon)	Descendants of the Russian monarchy, or at least, claimants of lineage	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Camping (HBO)	Mid-life crisis, high-strung wife, camping trip with cast	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Charmed (CW)	Reboot but without the originals	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
The Kids Are Alright (ABC)	Irish Catholic, 70s	RENEWAL	CANCELLATION
The Rookie (ABC)	Nathan Filion, hero, ends up as oldest LAPD rookie	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
Legacies (CW)	Vampire Diaries spin-off, with Buffy formula	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
Chilling Adventures of Sabrina (Netflix)	Riverdale spinoff	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
Homecoming (Amazon)	Caseworker helping veterans	CANCELLATION	RENEWAL
The Kominsky Method	Michael Douglas, Alan Arkin	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
Escape at Dannemora (Showtime)	Not Shawshank for integrity but otherwise, the same	~~CANCELLATION~~	CANCELLATION
The Code (CBS)	JAG + CSI	RENEWAL	RENEWAL
Proven Innocent (FOX)	False convict turned lawyer saves the wronged	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
The Passage (FOX)	Secret medical facility with experimental drugs and a reluctant guinea pig	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Roswell, New Mexico (CW)	Semi-spinoff, similar premise or a bit like Starman	CANCELLATION	RENEWAL
The Enemy Within (NBC)	Quantico-ish	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
The Fix (ABC)	Second chances on a serial murder case	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Abby’s (NBC)	Bar in backyard	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Whiskey Cavalier (ABC)	FBI and CIA hotshots	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Fam (CBS)	Perfect family life vs. blended family reality	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
In the Dark (CW)	Blind witness to murder tries to solve the case	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
The Village (NBC)	Community building in Brooklyn	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Carter (WGN)	Actor plays detective, becomes detective	CANCELLATION	CANCELLATION
Jack Ryan (Amazon)	Clancy reboot	RENEWAL	RENEWAL

Interestingly, as I was considering these shows, I found some other offerings that are either movies/short series/returning series that sound kind of interesting to try too:

The Sinner (USA) — Bill Pullman as detective;
Ultimate Ninja Challenge (Discovery) — reality contest show;
Lodge 49 (AMC) — beach bum at lodge;
No Offence (Acorn TV) — female Manchester detectives;
Ordeal by Innocence (Amazon) — short series based on Agatha Christie murder mystery;
To All the Boys I’ve Loved Before (Netflix) — teen’s letters to crushes are revealed;
Deadwind (Netflix) — Finnish widow works as homicide detective;
One Dollar (CBS All Access) — dollar bill connects cast to murder;
Ultimate Beastmaster: Survival of the Fittest (Netflix) — reality contest show;
Sorry For Your Loss (Facebook Watch) — Widow learns about dead husband’s secrets;
Sisters (Netflix) — deathbed revelations reveals very large family;

So, let’s see how it goes…

How I did predicting renewal for new TV shows for 2017-18

May 18 2018

Way back at the start of the television season, I tried to predict the success factor for all the new shows as to whether or not they were likely to get renewal for a second season. Let’s see how I did…

The first group were the ones I predicted renewal for, and there were 12.

ABC: The Good Doctor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
ABC: The Mayor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED — after watching one EP, it was pretty clear it would be cancelled though
ABC: Marvel’s Inhumans – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED — although watching the EPs, that’s not too surprising
CBS: Young Sheldon – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
CBS: S.W.A.T. – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
CW: Black Lightning – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
OX: The Gifted – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
FOX: The Orville – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
FOX: The Resident – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
NBC: Champions – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is LIKELY CANCELLED
NBC: Rise – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED
NBC: Will and Grace – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED.

So I got 8/12 right. Much better than I did last year (where it was more 50/50). If I had waited to watch the first few EPs before I predicted, I would have at least went to 10/12 right…I never watched Champions or Rise.

The second group of shows were ones where I was predicting cancellation, with 16 predicted to circle the drain. Again, let’s see how I did:

ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
CBS: 9JKL – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
BS: Me, Myself and I – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
BS: Seal Team – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
CW: Dynasty – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
CW: Life Sentence – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
CW: Valor – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
FOX: L.A. to Vegas – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is LIKELY RENEWED
FOX: Ghosted – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is LIKELY CANCELLED
NBC: The Brave – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
NBC: A.P. Bio – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
NBC: Good Girls – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
NBC: Law & Order: True Crime – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
NBC: Reverie – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is unknown.

Of the 15 where the outcome is mostly known, I only got 10 right (2/3). However, for at least two more of the “wrong ones” i.e. ones that were renewed, others were surprised by those renewal notes since the ratings kind of sucked. Which means I was right about the ratings, but they got renewed anyway. Weird. That would have taken me to 12/15 or 80%.

Overall I have 8+10 = 18 out of 27, or 2/3. If I adjusted for the actual shows and ignoring surprises, I would have had closer to 22/27 or 80%.

Better than last year at least. I’m improving 🙂

New TV shows for 2017-18

September 25 2017

Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows. And I post my predictions for what they’re worth, knowing sometimes I go as low as 50% right and 50% wrong! Mostly because I don’t take into account differences between networks and other factors, I just go by quality or basic delivery on a viable show premise.

This year, I tried to improve my predictions with a bit more business model consideration:

In the end though, what I’m really interested in are the new shows. From the lineups, it’s a quirky bunch of shows. Here’s my take on what will make it:

ABC: The Good Doctor – Think “House” meets “Rainman”, and while I wouldn’t bet the farm on it’s renewal, it’s an in-house co-production so likely RENEWED;
ABC: The Mayor – rapper pulls prank to get noticed, gets elected…normally I would say cancel, but also in-house for ABC with other producers they’re already in bed with, so likely RENEWED;
ABC: Marvel’s Inhumans – ABC really wants to be in the superhero game, and this is what they have to work with, so RENEWED;
CBS: Young Sheldon – well, duh, it could die a 1000 times and it will likely get renewed just to keep tweaking it until it works, so RENEWED;
CBS: S.W.A.T. – With H50 and MacGyver not strong enough to continue in my view, I’m going to bet on another throwback continuing with this one, so RENEWED;
CW: Black Lightning – It’s all Berlanti, all the time, it would be crazy to bet against it, even without the Arrowverse tie-ins, RENEWED;
FOX: The Gifted – Fox wants to expand into the superhero world too, after their relative success with Gotham, RENEWED;
FOX: The Orville – I’m totally on the line with this one, but they do like pseudo comic shows, even sci fi spoofs, RENEWED;
FOX: The Resident – A medical show with hot actors? Yeah, they’ll try real hard to keep it, RENEWED;
NBC: Champions – Two and a Half Men found an audience, this should find the same one even without Charlie Sheen, RENEWED;
NBC: Rise – Mr. Holland’s Opus meets Glee, yep, it might find an audience, RENEWED;
NBC: Will and Grace – duh, RENEWED;

However, I think the following shows are unlikely to find their groove:

ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night – CANCELLED;
ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down – CANCELLED;
CBS: 9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings – CANCELLED;
CBS: Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly – CANCELLED;
CBS: Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series – CANCELLED;
CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years – CANCELLED;
CW: Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in – CANCELLED;
CW: Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show – CANCELLED;
CW: Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great – CANCELLED;
FOX: L.A. to Vegas – Workplace comedy? Sure. Airlines to Vegas? Umm, no – CANCELLED;
FOX: Ghosted – Men in Black, weekly? With extra comedy? Yeah, that’s going to need a lot of work to keep it fresh – CANCELLED;
NBC: The Brave – Elite undercover military heroes…umm, no – CANCELLED;
NBC: A.P. Bio – bio teacher using nerds to attack the person who stole his dream job…umm, also no – CANCELLED;
NBC: Good Girls – Thelma and Louise meets Breaking Bad? … can I get a “hell, no” – CANCELLED?
NBC: Law & Order: True Crime – great idea, lousy premise for the case – CANCELLED;
NBC: Reverie – Save people from a VR game? Love the premise, hate its chances – CANCELLED;

Of the new shows, I’m predicting 12 will make it and 16 won’t. That still seems high, likely more around 8 make it and 20 won’t. But hard to tell. Guess I’ll see at the end of the season.

Predictions for the 2017-18 season: NBC

September 25 2017

Last year, NBC had 19 shows up for review, and only cancelled five, three of which were new and two were just past their S4/S5 syndication dates.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

Blindspot
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago P.D.
Great News
Law and Order SVU
Superstore
Taken
The Blacklist
The Good Place
This is Us
Trial and Error

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

Shades of Blue – no way this makes it to syndication;
Timeless – it was so close to cancellation, it actually WAS cancelled and then reversed when there was nothing else to replace it in the schedule, likely won’t get a third chance;

New shows that I think will make it:

Champions – Two and a Half Men found an audience, this should find the same one even without Charlie Sheen;
Rise – Mr. Holland’s Opus meets Glee, yep, it might find an audience;
Will and Grace – duh;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

The Brave – Elite undercover military heroes…umm, no;
A.P. Bio – bio teacher using nerds to attack the person who stole his dream job…umm, also no;
Good Girls – Thelma and Louise meets Breaking Bad? … can I get a “hell, no”?
Law & Order: True Crime – great idea, lousy premise for the case;
Reverie – Save people from a VR game? Love the premise, hate its chances;

As always, red indicates shows I watch or will give a chance.

/watching

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