Last year, of 15 scripted shows, the CW cancelled 4 and renewed 11. The big challenge though is that CW renewals are as much about business models with the two invested co-companies as they are about ratings. Of the 4 cancellations, two were true newbies, the other two were ending shows. Of the 11 that stayed, only 1 was a newbie (Riverdale). Let’s see how that informs my approach this year. 

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

• Supergirl
• The Flash
• Arrow
• DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
• Riverdale
• Supernatural
• Crazy Ex-GF
• Jane the Virgin
• The 100
• iZombie
• The Originals

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

• n/a, I think the core will stay the same;

New shows that I think will make it:

• Black Lightning – It’s all Berlanti, all the time, it would be crazy to bet against it, even without the Arrowverse tie-ins;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

• Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in;
• Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show;
• Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great;

As always, red indicates shows I watch or will give a chance.