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Monthly Archives: November 2016

The burden of proof

The PolyBlog
November 12 2016

A couple of months ago, a case made the news here in Ottawa and it had lots of salacious details to peak people’s interests. A mint employee. Gold. Smuggling. And vaseline to tell you where and how he smuggled it. Earlier this week, he was found guilty, and it is an incredibly interesting case for a totally different reason — it is entirely comprised of overwhelming circumstantial evidence. On that basis alone, I would expect it to be appealed.

The basics of the case are pretty straightforward:

  1. A bank employee noticed a man depositing a couple of large cheques from the gold-buying store nearby. $7K apiece. Not exactly chump change. When she noticed on the account that he was an employee of the Mint, she flagged it for her boss and they flagged it for RCMP.
  2. RCMP investigated, watched him sell some more at the gold store and deposit the cheques, and then contacted the store to see what it was he was selling. Gold pucks, high purity. Not a collection of Grandma’s old jewellery.
  3. They checked with the Mint, found out he was in charge of testing gold purity with a label that creates small gold pucks. And he set the metal detectors off way more than any other employee, had more pucks in his safety deposit box, matched the purity and size of the pucks to the ladle, etc.
  4. He didn’t make enough money to have that gold through normal means;
  5. And finally for “evidence”, they found jars of vaseline and latex gloves in his locker which he could have used to place the pucks up his butt to smuggle it out of the Mint.

Now, if I recast it as per the judge’s decision, it gets a bit more pointed:

  1. Motive — he had possession of $160K worth of gold and had laundered $138K of it;
  2. Opportunity — worked alone, had access to high purity gold that matched the mint’s ratings, had Vaseline in his locker, no cameras to catch theft or insertion;
  3. Identity — he had the gold and the money, and he is the one who set off the metal detectors.

Seems like a slam dunk, right?

Except there are two things missing from the case, or maybe one-and-a-half if you ignore the right against self-incrimination.

The biggest one is that the Mint had no evidence that anything had been stolen. They don’t have weight measures to show that they put 10 pounds of gold in and it came out at 9.8 pounds, for example. They had no idea he was stealing because they had no idea anything had been stolen. In order to be charged and convicted of theft, you kind of need evidence that something has been stolen. And the Mint has no direct evidence of that…they just now have a theory as to how and why he set off the metal detector so often.

I know, I know, if you read this and see the evidence, you think, “Well that is what must have happened.” Except that isn’t the standard of legal proof.

The second missing piece is that there was no other explanation for the circumstances under which he could get the gold. Except there’s an easy one. What if someone else at the Mint stole the pucks and gave them to him. You might say, “No problem, he’s still guilty.” Except he isn’t. At that point, he hasn’t stolen anything. He is part of a criminal conspiracy, and guilty of a crime, but not of the crimes he was charged and convicted of, although the proceeds of crime would probably stand. Related to this is another half of a missing piece, except on his side. He gave no explanation of how else he came into possession of the nuggets. No alternate theory of the crime, so to speak, but more accurately, no simple explanation that could raise reasonable doubt against overwhelming circumstantial evidence. But here’s the kicker — the right against self-incrimination also includes the right not to be presumed guilty if you don’t testify on your own behalf. Sure, people want the accused to testify in every TV or movie case you’ve ever seen, but the law is clear — nothing can be inferred if he doesn’t testify and give an alternate explanation. The state has the burden of proof, not the accused.

So, let’s go back to the evidence. Opportunity is that he worked alone with gold. Hardly damning. The pucks matched the unique ladles the Mint used — evidence it came from the Mint, not that he did it. Had Vaseline in his locker — here’s a shocker, probably a quarter of the women in the Mint probably do too for hands or lip balm, or whatever, based on market share. A thousand innocent explanations or there are a lot of people out there who must be smugglers as they have Vaseline in their possession. No cameras — so the proof is that there was no proof? All of that is basically irrelevant.

What you are left with is he has gold that (likely) came from the Mint, and he can’t explain how. Ergo, he stole it. That is way below the standard of proof. What if instead he was part of a giant criminal conspiracy. Who hired him off the books because he worked at the Mint and knew how to purify gold. And they set up a lab to do the exact same thing. Or maybe he did it himself. And maybe, sure, the gold he was melting down was all stolen jewellery so he can’t admit to it. Could he have stolen a ladle? Sure. If he could steal all that gold, and he’s so amazing at it, he could steal a ladle. Or order one that matched the size and shape of the Mint’s.

Because, don’t forget, the MINT has no idea if anything was actually stolen. They have no evidence that a crime was actually committed. Yet here we have a guy convicted and about to be imprisoned for a crime we don’t know actually occurred. We know, or at least we’re pretty sure, a crime was convicted but we don’t know if it was this crime, or a different one, or committed by someone else and he was involved, or anything of the sort.

These are the cases that fascinate me…I don’t care about huge murder cases, DNA evidence, etc. I care about inferred crimes that don’t meet the standard.

Even if everyone involved thinks they know what must have happened. And that he’s guilty.

Feel free to read the coverage (Source: Mint employee guilty of smuggling $165K of gold in rectum – Ottawa – CBC News), I’m just ranting.

Posted in Learning and Ideas | Tagged burden, crime, evidence | Leave a reply

Where is my dumb robot?

The PolyBlog
November 11 2016

I confess I have a bit of a techie mentality. I paid for part of my university life through working tech support areas and software installation services at universities, as well as helping teach a few practical sessions with professionals upgrading their computer skills. And when I started working for government, a lot of what garnered early positive feedback was my computer skills. I’ve done programming too. But where I stop being a techie usually is when it moves from software to hardware. There I’m relatively lost. Yet when people talk about Artificial Intelligence, better use of data, and all those wonderful things that are more software-oriented, they omit the part that I think is really possible in the short-run. The physical hardware with some basic programming.

People are all excited in the industry about “smart cars”, but long before I get a smart car, can someone tell me why I don’t have a dumb robot yet?

I don’t mean those simple robots that are merely self-propelled vacuum cleaners nor the ones for kids that roll like BB-8 or respond to a couple of voice commands or are in the shape of a pet. I’m talking about a dumb, simple, repetitive-task performing robot.

There’s an article over at the Harvard Business Review blogs by Andrew Ng called What Artificial Intelligence Can and Can’t Do Right Now (link may expire) and I love it for the way it approaches what AI can do by comparing it to the way humans process things. Basically, the argument is that if our brain can figure out what to do in less than a second, then the number of variables are relatively small, there are discrete choices and outcomes, and thus you can automate the task to a machine. Basically machine and supervised learning to teach a machine how to do it.

What do I want in a dumb robot? Someone who can do things for me during the day that I don’t need to do myself. Let’s walk through a typical day and the things that I should be able to have already…

I start my day with my alarm clock beeping at me. No real need to automate that, the alarm clock does exactly what it should do, a tried and true technology. But what if I roll over, turn off the alarm, and accidentally fall back asleep. I don’t mean I hit snooze, I mean I turned off the alarm. Now there is no backup. No mental nudge to say stay awake. What if my dumb robot (DR), let’s call it Jeeves, what if Jeeves was programmed that unless I override his programming the night before had access to my calendar and saw that it was 8:00 and I have a work meeting at 9:00, but I was still in bed. Could Jeeves beep at me? Or even in a nice voice (maybe reminiscent of my mom calling me when I was a kid to get my butt out of bed) saying “Paul, are you up yet?”. Maybe more insistent if I don’t answer. The backup to my own false sense of infallibility.

But let’s say I get up on time and I’m heading for the shower. Do I want Jeeves to turn on the shower for me and have it pre-heated to the right temperature before I come in? Nothing particularly challenging about that. Movement to a preset location, turning a knob to a specific point, good to go. Not much of a time-saver, most people wouldn’t bother. But you could have Jeeves do it.

Now, showering, brushing your teeth, voiding, those are tasks you’re going to perform yourself. But if you had a slight disability, are there basic things Jeeves could do to hold an arm out to assist with transitions? Hand you a towel? Monitor you in case you fall and call someone if you do? Could Jeeves even assist with bathing for those who need it? That’s probably a bridge too far right now, but not an impassable chasm.

But as you finish up in the bathroom, could Jeeves make you breakfast? Your bowls, utensils, cereal, juice, glasses are all pretty much going to be in the same place every day, so automating the robot to fill a bowl with cereal and a glass with juice shouldn’t be that difficult. You just need some flexibility to identify to Jeeves what your bowls and glasses look like, the layout of your kitchen, etc. although scanning/mapping software would do that for it pretty easily. A more advanced version might even be able to crack open a couple of eggs, butter bread or toast, make you a fried egg sandwich so breakfast is ready whenever you are.

Once everything is over, presumably Jeeves could clean up and put dishes in the dishwasher, etc. Could maybe clean them, and put them back in exactly the same spot as the day before, but perhaps not.

When I go to work each morning, there are basically six things I take with me. My tablet, my work blackberry, my personal phone, usually a book that I’m reading, my notebook, and my work pass. There are some other things in my bag, etc., but those six are pretty standard. I might or might not wear a coat depending on the day, different shoes, mitts, hats, always my car keys, but those are contextual. And once in a while, I forget something. Like my work pass. Why? Because I stopped somewhere on the way home, put it in the pocket of my jacket, got home, hung up the jacket, and forgot to put the pass on the shelf by the front door where I’ll see it. No biggie, but why am I using mental energy to remember to put it specifically in the same spot or remembering the next day? What if each of those six items had a small RFID tag on it that Jeeves would monitor. And if they weren’t all in my bag as I go to head out in the morning, Jeeves would say, “Excuse me, Paul, I don’t believe you have your work pass with you.” My first reaction will be, “What? No, of course I do, it’s right here in my … umm, why isn’t my pass in my bag? Oh right, it’s over here. Thanks Jeeves/memory jogger.” Is that a big deal? Of course not, but I bet I would program it to scan for the RFID’s when I’m leaving for the days when my brain is focused on the seven things my son, wife and I are talking about as we scramble to get out the door. Heck, sometimes it’s as simple as something got placed on top of my pass and I can’t physically see it on my shelf, and so I head out thinking I have everything.

Here’s where some of us will diverge. Lots of people would love to take the robot to work. That’s a bridge too far for me. If work wants to automate tasks, great, I shouldn’t bring my own “robot” to work to help me do my job. If so, why not just hire the robot?

But while I’m at work, could Jeeves vacuum the house? Clean a toilet? Wash pre-sorted laundry? Hang it on a line to dry or throw in the dryer and check if it is dry when done? Cut the grass? Shovel snow…oh, that would be sweet.

Could Jeeves be programmed with a more sophisticated kitchen module that would allow it to chop vegetables? Basically act as a sous-chef? Maybe even, with remote activation, throw a pizza in or a pre-assembled casserole so it’s ready when we all get home? I hesitate to go so far as having a full cookbook with multiple ingredients, but that is only an RFID tag on a standard sized container away from doable. Could he open the door and receive a package from UPS or FedEx? Could he collect the mail from a central box?

After supper, can it also double as a stand-in for a playmate for someone who is single or whose friends are busy that night? Get your mind out of the gutter. I mean rather than playing a board game or card game against a computer screen, could it roll dice, charge you rent in Monopoly, learn to throw and catch a frisbee? Or a baseball? Could it be programmed with multiple pitching styles to act like an automated pitcher that adjusts to your level and technique so you don’t have to hit balls by yourself and chase them? Could it act as pitcher with five little scouts running around it that chase balls and bring them back? Could it play basic tennis? Those are more about the design of the robot’s arms/movements than about technique for hitting or throwing a ball, so yes, they all could be done.

As I’m getting ready for bed, Jeeves could turn off all the lights downstairs (heck, an app can do that now). Jeeves could also monitor the location and charging status of my e-devices, and if they are not on the charger, go and get them and put them on charge. Or double check my to do list verbally with me to see if there is anything to adjust, delete, add. A personal secretary app, not unlike some of the functions Siri does now. But more interactive, following me around while I do other things.

And all of those things are doable. A dumb robot, personal assistant, digital butler, e-handmaiden, non-sentient slave. An article I read some time ago talked about the issue of android rights, similar basically to the idea that was raised in the first season of Star Trek: The Next Generation. Is an high-AI android property like a toaster? Or as the AI evolves, does it meet any criteria for self-awareness or even sentience? Except it missed the point.

Developers are looking for smart androids. People are looking for dumb robots.

If you had a Jeeves, what would you want it to do that you hate doing yourself?

And where the hell is our Jeeves?

Posted in Learning and Ideas | Tagged AI, android, development, personal, robot, technology | Leave a reply

Extremely Rich Chocolate Cake (REC00004) – 🐸🐸🐸🐸🐸

The PolyBlog
November 6 2016

I snagged the base for this recipe from a “Taste of Home Fall Baking – Fresh from the Oven” cookbook. My first attempt at a proper cake, part of a goal for myself.

Type of mealCuisineDifficulty
Dessert, Side, CakeBakingEasy to Normal
Cooking TimeYieldRating
Prep: 40m
Baking: 40m
Cooling: 40m
Total: 2h
12 servings★★★★★

Ingredients

Cake

  • 1 package devil’s food cake mix
  • 1 cup sour cream
  • 1 package instant chocolate fudge pudding mix
  • 4 large eggs
  • 1/3 cup canola oil
  • 1/4 cup water
  • 1/4 cup buttermilk
  • 2 tbsp chocolate syrup
  • 2 tsp vanilla extract

Frosting

  • 1 lb / 2 cups semi-sweet chocolate, chopped
  • 6 tbsp boiling water
  • 6 tbsp cocoa powder
  • 1.5 cups butter, softened
  • 1/2 cup confectioner’s / icing sugar

Main preparations

Cake

  1. In a large bowl, combine the devil’s food cake mix (1 package), sour cream (1 cup), instant chocolate fudge pudding mix (1 package), eggs (4 large), canola oil (1/3 cup), water (1/4 cup), buttermilk (1/4 cup), chocolate syrup (2 tbsp) and vanilla extract (2 tsp).
  2. Use an electric mixer to beat the mixture on low for 30 seconds and then on medium for another 2 minutes. The goal is to have them well-mixed.
  3. Grease and flour two 8-inch baking pans and pour the mixture evenly into the two pans. Note that you are making two the exact same size so that you can stack them later.
  4. Bake at 350 degrees for 40 minutes. Test to see if the two cakes are done with a toothpick by inserting it in the cake; the cakes are done when the toothpick comes out clean. (While the cake is baking, you can start on the frosting below.)
  5. When done, remove from the oven and let cool for 10 minutes in the pans, and then remove the cakes from the pans onto wire racks to cool completely (30 more minutes).

Frosting

  1. While the cake is baking and cooling, melt the chopped semi-sweet chocolate (2 lb / 1 kg) slowly in a microwave, 30 seconds at a time on low to medium, stirring until smooth. Let the chocolate cool for 20-30 minutes.
  2. While the chocolate is cooling, heat water (6 tbsp) to boiling and then, in a small bowl, dissolve the cocoa powder (6 tbsp).
  3. In a medium- to large-sized bowl, beat the softened butter (1.5 cups) and confectioner’s / icing sugar (1/2 cup) together. It should become almost fluffy, but don’t worry too much, as you are now going to add the melted chocolate. Beat the two mixtures until it is well-combined, and then add in the cocoa mixture and beat some more. If it starts adhering to the sides of the bowl, use a small spatula spoon to scrape it off and add it back into the mixture.

Combining the Cakes

  1. At this point, you should have two plain cakes resting on the wire racks and a bowl of frosting.
  2. Place one cake on a serving platter (whatever you want the cake to sit on for now as it will be difficult to move later).
  3. Use about 40% of the frosting to cover the top of it. This frosting will serve as the “middle” layer, and can be as thick or as thin as you want. Don’t worry about the sides at this point.
  4. Place the second cake on top of it, carefully, and then add frosting to the top and all around the sides, completely covering the cake.

Variations/Notes

  • I loved the outcome, but it was extremely rich, and there was way too much. It estimates 12 servings, but those are good-sized servings. I’d recommend halving the recipe and using smaller 4-inch cake pans if you have them (or use the 8″, it will just be a shorter cake).
  • In addition, you might reduce the frosting by a third whether you reduce/half the overall recipe or not. There was way too much frosting, and it is extremely rich.
  • For the chocolate, it suggested using small chunks and chopping them up. I found it easier to just use two cups of small chocolate wafers/chips, and just melting those.
Posted in Recipes | Tagged chocolate chips, cinnamon, flour, personal, recipe | Leave a reply

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