Tag Archives: predictions

How I did predicting renewal for new TV shows for 2017-18

The PolyBlog
May 18 2018

Way back at the start of the television season, I tried to predict the success factor for all the new shows as to whether or not they were likely to get renewal for a second season. Let’s see how I did…

The first group were the ones I predicted renewal for, and there were 12.

  • ABC: The Good Doctor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  • ABC: The Mayor – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED — after watching one EP, it was pretty clear it would be cancelled though
  • ABC: Marvel’s Inhumans – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED — although watching the EPs, that’s not too surprising
  • CBS: Young Sheldon – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  • CBS: S.W.A.T. – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  • CW: Black Lightning – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  • OX: The Gifted – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  • FOX: The Orville – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  • FOX: The Resident – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED
  • NBC: Champions – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is LIKELY CANCELLED
  • NBC: Rise – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • NBC: Will and Grace – Predicted RENEWED and outcome is RENEWED.

So I got 8/12 right. Much better than I did last year (where it was more 50/50). If I had waited to watch the first few EPs before I predicted, I would have at least went to 10/12 right…I never watched Champions or Rise.

The second group of shows were ones where I was predicting cancellation, with 16 predicted to circle the drain. Again, let’s see how I did:

  • ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • CBS: 9JKL – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • BS: Me, Myself and I – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • BS: Seal Team – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
  • CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • CW: Dynasty – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
  • CW: Life Sentence – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • CW: Valor – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • FOX: L.A. to Vegas – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is LIKELY RENEWED
  • FOX: Ghosted – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is LIKELY CANCELLED
  • NBC: The Brave – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • NBC: A.P. Bio – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
  • NBC: Good Girls – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is RENEWED
  • NBC: Law & Order: True Crime – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is CANCELLED
  • NBC: Reverie – Predicted CANCELLED and outcome is unknown.

Of the 15 where the outcome is mostly known, I only got 10 right (2/3). However, for at least two more of the “wrong ones” i.e. ones that were renewed, others were surprised by those renewal notes since the ratings kind of sucked. Which means I was right about the ratings, but they got renewed anyway. Weird. That would have taken me to 12/15 or 80%.

Overall I have 8+10 = 18 out of 27, or 2/3. If I adjusted for the actual shows and ignoring surprises, I would have had closer to 22/27 or 80%.

Better than last year at least. I’m improving 🙂

New TV shows for 2017-18

The PolyBlog
September 25 2017

Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows. And I post my predictions for what they’re worth, knowing sometimes I go as low as 50% right and 50% wrong! Mostly because I don’t take into account differences between networks and other factors, I just go by quality or basic delivery on a viable show premise.

This year, I tried to improve my predictions with a bit more business model consideration:

In the end though, what I’m really interested in are the new shows. From the lineups, it’s a quirky bunch of shows. Here’s my take on what will make it:

  • ABC: The Good Doctor – Think “House” meets “Rainman”, and while I wouldn’t bet the farm on it’s renewal, it’s an in-house co-production so likely RENEWED;
  • ABC: The Mayor – rapper pulls prank to get noticed, gets elected…normally I would say cancel, but also in-house for ABC with other producers they’re already in bed with, so likely RENEWED;
  • ABC: Marvel’s Inhumans – ABC really wants to be in the superhero game, and this is what they have to work with, so RENEWED;
  • CBS: Young Sheldon – well, duh, it could die a 1000 times and it will likely get renewed just to keep tweaking it until it works, so RENEWED;
  • CBS: S.W.A.T. – With H50 and MacGyver not strong enough to continue in my view, I’m going to bet on another throwback continuing with this one, so RENEWED;
  • CW: Black Lightning – It’s all Berlanti, all the time, it would be crazy to bet against it, even without the Arrowverse tie-ins, RENEWED;
  • FOX: The Gifted – Fox wants to expand into the superhero world too, after their relative success with Gotham, RENEWED;
  • FOX: The Orville – I’m totally on the line with this one, but they do like pseudo comic shows, even sci fi spoofs, RENEWED;
  • FOX: The Resident – A medical show with hot actors? Yeah, they’ll try real hard to keep it, RENEWED;
  • NBC: Champions – Two and a Half Men found an audience, this should find the same one even without Charlie Sheen, RENEWED;
  • NBC: Rise – Mr. Holland’s Opus meets Glee, yep, it might find an audience, RENEWED;
  • NBC: Will and Grace – duh, RENEWED;

However, I think the following shows are unlikely to find their groove:

  • ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night – CANCELLED;
  • ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down – CANCELLED;
  • CBS: 9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings – CANCELLED;
  • CBS: Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly – CANCELLED;
  • CBS: Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series – CANCELLED;
  • CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years – CANCELLED;
  • CW: Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in – CANCELLED;
  • CW: Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show – CANCELLED;
  • CW: Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great – CANCELLED;
  • FOX: L.A. to Vegas – Workplace comedy? Sure. Airlines to Vegas? Umm, no – CANCELLED;
  • FOX: Ghosted – Men in Black, weekly? With extra comedy? Yeah, that’s going to need a lot of work to keep it fresh – CANCELLED;
  • NBC: The Brave – Elite undercover military heroes…umm, no – CANCELLED;
  • NBC: A.P. Bio – bio teacher using nerds to attack the person who stole his dream job…umm, also no – CANCELLED;
  • NBC: Good Girls – Thelma and Louise meets Breaking Bad? … can I get a “hell, no” – CANCELLED?
  • NBC: Law & Order: True Crime – great idea, lousy premise for the case – CANCELLED;
  • NBC: Reverie – Save people from a VR game? Love the premise, hate its chances – CANCELLED;

Of the new shows, I’m predicting 12 will make it and 16 won’t. That still seems high, likely more around 8 make it and 20 won’t. But hard to tell. Guess I’ll see at the end of the season.

Predictions for the 2017-18 season: NBC

The PolyBlog
September 25 2017

Last year, NBC had 19 shows up for review, and only cancelled five, three of which were new and two were just past their S4/S5 syndication dates. 

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

  • Blindspot
  • Chicago Fire
  • Chicago Med
  • Chicago P.D.
  • Great News
  • Law and Order SVU
  • Superstore
  • Taken
  • The Blacklist
  • The Good Place
  • This is Us
  • Trial and Error

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

  • Shades of Blue – no way this makes it to syndication;
  • Timeless – it was so close to cancellation, it actually WAS cancelled and then reversed when there was nothing else to replace it in the schedule, likely won’t get a third chance;

New shows that I think will make it:

  • Champions – Two and a Half Men found an audience, this should find the same one even without Charlie Sheen;
  • Rise – Mr. Holland’s Opus meets Glee, yep, it might find an audience;
  • Will and Grace – duh;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

  • The Brave – Elite undercover military heroes…umm, no;
  • A.P. Bio – bio teacher using nerds to attack the person who stole his dream job…umm, also no;
  • Good Girls – Thelma and Louise meets Breaking Bad? … can I get a “hell, no”?
  • Law & Order: True Crime – great idea, lousy premise for the case;
  • Reverie – Save people from a VR game? Love the premise, hate its chances;

As always, red indicates shows I watch or will give a chance.

/watching

Predictions for the 2017-18 season: Fox

The PolyBlog
September 25 2017

Last year, Fox was a bloodbath. Of 24 shows, they cancelled 11 and renewed 13. And so this year, they kind of need those 13 to keep delivering.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

  • Bob’s Burgers
  • Brooklyn Nine-Nine
  • Empire
  • Family Guy
  • Gotham
  • Lucifer
  • New Girl
  • Star
  • The Exorcist
  • The Last Man on Earth
  • The Mick
  • The Simpsons

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

  • Lethal Weapon – I have to think they were desperate to renew SOMETHING last year to keep this one around…it or The Exorcist should have died, and I’m betting on this not making it past S2;

New shows that I think will make it:

  • The Gifted – Fox wants to expand into the superhero world too, after their relative success with Gotham;
  • The Orville – I’m totally on the line with this one, but they do like pseudo comic shows, even sci fi spoofs;
  • The Resident – A medical show with hot actors? Yeah, they’ll try real hard to keep it;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

  • L.A. to Vegas – Workplace comedy? Sure. Airlines to Vegas? Umm, no;
  • Ghosted – Men in Black, weekly? With extra comedy? Yeah, that’s going to need a lot of work to keep it fresh;

As always, red indicates shows I watch or will give a chance.

Predictions for the 2017-18 season: CW

The PolyBlog
September 25 2017

Last year, of 15 scripted shows, the CW cancelled 4 and renewed 11. The big challenge though is that CW renewals are as much about business models with the two invested co-companies as they are about ratings. Of the 4 cancellations, two were true newbies, the other two were ending shows. Of the 11 that stayed, only 1 was a newbie (Riverdale). Let’s see how that informs my approach this year. 

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

  • Supergirl
  • The Flash
  • Arrow
  • DC’s Legends of Tomorrow
  • Riverdale
  • Supernatural
  • Crazy Ex-GF
  • Jane the Virgin
  • The 100
  • iZombie
  • The Originals

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

  • n/a, I think the core will stay the same;

New shows that I think will make it:

  • Black Lightning – It’s all Berlanti, all the time, it would be crazy to bet against it, even without the Arrowverse tie-ins;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

  • Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in;
  • Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show;
  • Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great;

As always, red indicates shows I watch or will give a chance.