Tag Archives: predictions

Predictions for the 2017-18 season: CBS

The PolyBlog
September 25 2017

Last year, of 26 scripted shows, CBS cancelled 8 and renewed 18. However, of the 8 cancelled, 7 were new shows. Brutal. In other words, they cancelled only 1 of their pre-existing shows. Of the 18 renewals, only 2-3 were newbies; the rest were roll-overs. So, looking at CBS for this year, I want to try and take that approach into account — most existing shows are likely to make it, few newbies.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

  • The Big Bang Theory
  • Scorpion
  • NCIS
  • NCIS: New Orleans
  • NCIS: Los Angeles
  • Madam Secretary
  • Bull
  • Blue Bloods
  • Kevin Can Wait
  • Superior Donuts
  • Criminal Minds

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

  • Hawaii Five-O – it has to die sometime;
  • MacGyver – I was sure it would die last year and didn’t;

New shows that I think will make it:

  • Young Sheldon – well, duh, it could die a 1000 times and it will likely get renewed just to keep tweaking it until it works;
  • S.W.A.T. – With H50 and MacGyver not strong enough to continue in my view, I’m going to bet on another throwback continuing with this one;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

  • 9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings;
  • Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly;
  • Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series;
  • Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years;

Ones shown in red are ones that I either watch or will give a chance.

Predictions for the 2017-18 season: ABC

The PolyBlog
September 25 2017

Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows — renewal for another season, or cancellation. However, I must admit, my approach has lacked a fair amount of finesse as I generally went by whether the show was worth keeping, absent any consideration of the network’s ability to cancel everything bad and only keep the good stuff.

Take ABC for instance. Last year, of 24 scripted shows, they cancelled 10 and renewed 14. However, of the 10 cancelled, only 4 were new shows. In other words, they cancelled 6 of their pre-existing shows. Of the 14 renewals, only 3 were newbies; the rest were roll-overs. So, looking at ABC for this year, I want to try and take that approach into account.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

  • The Middle
  • Black-ish
  • The Goldbergs
  • Speechless
  • Modern Family
  • American Housewife
  • Designated Survivor
  • Grey’s Anatomy
  • Scandal

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

  • Fresh Off The Boat
  • How to Get Away With Murder – I’m taking a flyer on this one, finishing season 4 and then dying, particularly with the new Shondaland theme park over at Netflix;
  • Once Upon A Time – Too many changes, too many departures, too much cost cutting to be viable, time to end;

New shows that I think will make it:

  • The Good Doctor – Think “House” meets “Rainman”, and while I wouldn’t bet the farm on it’s renewal, it’s an in-house co-production;
  • The Mayor – rapper pulls prank to get noticed, gets elected…normally I would say cancel, but also in-house for ABC with other producers they’re already in bed with;
  • Marvel’s Inhumans – ABC really wants to be in the superhero game, and this is what they have to work with;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

  • Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night.
  • Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down;

That’s all I have for their premiere list so far…let’s see how I do. I should be honest too in my own evaluation — only the ones in red are ones that I watch or will give a chance to in my watching.

Outcomes of the 2016-17 TV season

The PolyBlog
May 21 2017

Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows — renewal for another season, or cancellation. Let’s see how I did this past year…Of the shows I picked for renewal:

  • Correct: Great News, Kevin Can Wait, Riverdale
  • Incorrect: Doubt, Emerald City, Powerless
  • Still uncertain: 24: Legacy, Chicago Justice, Midnight: Texas, Still Star-Crossed

Which basically means I was 50/50 for the shows I thought would get renewed but didn’t.

Of the shows I picked for cancellation:

  • Correct: APB, Blacklist: Redemption, Conviction, Frequency, Great Indoors, Imaginary Mary, Making History, No Tomorrow, Pitch, Notorious, Pure Genius, Shots Fired, Son of Zorn, Time After Time, Training Day
  • Incorrect: American Housewife, Bull, Designated Survivor, Exorcist, Good Place, Lethal Weapon, MacGyver, The Mick, Man With A Plan, Speechless, Star, Taken, This Is Us, Timeless, Trial & Error
  • Still uncertain: Downward Dog, Marlon, Prison Break

Again, I was 50/50.

Heck, I could have probably done just as well or better assuming they would all be cancelled. Good thing I don’t do this for a living!

Overall, there were:

  • Ten shows cancelled by ABC, and I won’t miss any of them;
  • Eight shows cancelled by CBS, and I won’t miss any of them;
  • Four shows cancelled by CW, and I won’t miss any of them;
  • Nine shows cancelled by Fox, including Rosewood, which never found it’s groove, and Pitch + Sleepy Hollow, no great losses; and,
  • Four shows cancelled by NBC, including Grimm and BlackList: Redemption, but both were ready to go;

For renewals:

  • Fourteen shows were renewed by ABC, none of which I watch regularly, and only SHIELD / Designated Survivor / Quantico on catch-up eventually;
  • Eighteen shows were renewed by NBC, and it makes a big difference for me — Blue Bloods, Bull, Elementary, NCIS are all ones I watch the same week, and Scorpion and Big Bang Theory I bingewatch to catch up;
  • Eleven shows were renewed by CW, including Arrow, DC Legends, Supergirl, and The Flash, all of which I watch same week;
  • Thirteen shows were renewed by Fox, and I like two of them a lot — Gotham and Lucifer; and,
  • Fourteen shows were renewed by NBC, including Blindspot, The Blacklist, and Timeless.

Nothing cancelled that I really cared about, and 18 that I do like were renewed. Not a bad outcome…

TV predictions for the new season: 44 new shows (2016-17)

The PolyBlog
September 6 2016

As regular readers will likely remember, I watch a lot of TV series. I can wax and wane on the merits of serialized story-telling in movies and books too, but each fall I look over the news of upcoming TV shows like fantasy football players scout rosters, looking for the hidden gems. The Carson Palmer who breaks out in their rookie season to dominate over many otherwise-average veterans. Mostly I know the likelihood of finding that gem, having it garner enough ratings to make it full season, or even the holy grail, to garner enough for renewal, is a fairly low percentage. But I like to predict anyway. This year I am going all-in on my analysis of the new shows…I’m predicting their outcome before they have even aired an episode, just based on past shows that were similar, who the stars are, and whether the premise is something that seems like it will catch on or is just some weird network president throwing anything at the wall to see if it will stick.

SHOWNETWORKDESCRIPTIONWILL I WATCHLENGTH PREDICTIONRENEWAL PREDICTION
24: LegacyFOXI expect it to easily survive the 12 episode run that it has been approved for, and go beyond. It’s a proven franchise, and the Live Another Day short-run series had good enough ratings to green-light this one without Jack Bauer.NoFullRenewal
American HousewifeABCA brash mother of three, doing something or other with richer folk. I fell asleep reading the description. Wasn’t it called Grace Under Fire the last time it was tried?No4 episodesEarly cancellation
APBFOXA mid-season replacement with a tech billionaire running Chicago PD. Could be Person of Interest, could be RoboCop, could be Minority Report.Will try 1 EPHalfNo renewal
Blacklist: RedemptionNBCThe show has a great pedigree in the original show, if it sticks more to season 1 than the last one. I like the characters individually as secondary characters, but making them the main characters and as mother/son is hard to predict. Father/daughter works for Red/Lizzie but only because his “evil” is matched by her “goodness”. These two are more “bad cop, worse cop”.YesHalfNo renewal
BullCBSMichael Weatherly exited NCIS and has his own show! How exciting! He’s “smart” in this one…which I know as he’s wearing glasses! And he’s a trial consultant. Sounds good…wait, he’s Dr. Phil? Umm…Will try 1 EPHalfNo renewal
Chicago JusticeNBCDick Wolf adds a fourth series inside the State’s Attorney’s office. Slam dunk, and not interested. Particularly with Carl Weathers as a “star”.NoHalfRenewal
ConvictionABCA conviction integrity unit in NY looking for wrongful convictions? An interesting yet bizarre premise that will be hard to sell in ongoing investigations — either they show incompetence or malice in how the cops and lawyers got convictions. Neither sounds watchable.Will try 1 EPHalfNo renewal
Designated SurvivorABCJack Ryan becomes President when everyone else is killed and they have to rebuild the Cabinet, House and Senate. Oh, wait, it isn’t the Tom Clancy book, so not Jack Ryan. “Tom Kirkman” played by Jack Bauer. Err, I mean Kiefer Sutherland. But they promise it will be a balanced West Wing with both sides of an argument being presented…zzzz.Will try 1 EP4 EPsEarly cancellation
DoubtCBSA defense attorney falling for her client. I want to call it quits, but after miss-predicting Madam Secretary, this one likely has some legs. Katherine Heigl’s in fact. Sounds like it will be How to Get Away With Romance but someone watches it.Will try 1 EPHalfRenewal
Downward DogABCShow told from PoV of the star’s dog. Umm…No2 EPsEarly cancellation
Emerald CityNBCLand of Oz, but dark and edgy. Oh, look, someone found a way to copy Once Upon A Time. And if it goes horrible, Shaun Cassidy can show up and sing.Will try 1 EPHalfRenewal
The ExorcistFoxHorror remake, with two priests. It has Geena Davis? What?No4 EPsEarly cancellation
FrequencyCWTwo detectives separated in time, communicate by ham radio. If they can make it like Cold Case or something, might have something interesting to watch. Or it could be like Minority Report’s precog knowledge except post-cog.Will try 1 EPHalfNo renewal
The Good PlaceNBCRedemption in the afterlife. Been there, skipped that.No4 EPsEarly cancellation
The Great IndoorsCBSReporter managing millennials. PassNo4 EPsEarly cancellation
Great NewsNBCNews producer with Mom intern. Andrea Martin? Good god, no. But somebody watches this crap.NoHalfRenewal
Imaginary MaryABCJenna Elfman’s back? Dating guy and 3 kids, seeing imaginary friend. Riiighht. Cuz that won’t get old or stupid.No4 EPs Early cancellation
Kevin Can WaitCBSRetired cop, facing home life. But it’s Kevin James, so a safe bet.NoFull Renewal
Lethal WeaponFOXOkay, so I’m not someone who thinks that trying to adapt a movie to a TV series is automatically going to suck. Sure, just about every attempt has sucked, but it isn’t guaranteed. But when you take Riggs and Murtaugh, and you make Damon Wayans Murtaugh? That’s just flat out ridiculous. And not in a good wayWill try 1 EP4 EPs Early cancellation
MacGyverCBSReboot OF MacGyver, Hard to avoid a cheese factor, but then Scorpion keeps getting renewed somehow too.Will try 1 EPHalfNo renewal
Making HistoryFOXThree friends who travel through time.Yes4 EPsEarly cancellation
Man With A PlanCBSMatt Leblanc as stay at home dad. No, no, no, no and oh, yeah, no again.No4 EPsEarly cancellation
MarlonCBSMarlon Wayans pretending to be Chris Rock, I guess. Based on Marlon’s life.NoHalfNo renewal
The MickFOXHustler inherits nieces and nephews. It entirely hangs on Olson as the star, and how annoying the nieces and nephews are. Plus whether it becomes a Wilford Brimley G-rating or goes edgy. She’s a hustler, there has to be some edge right?Will try 1 EP4 EPsEarly cancellation
Midnight, TexasNBCWith a bunch of supernatural shows biting the dust, this one might succeed. Depends on if they go for True Blood-style graphic content, or go for broader stream “bump in the night”.Will try 1 EPHalfRenewal
No TomorrowCW“Brazilian format”? Ticking off bucket lists for two. Either REALLY annoying or could be fun.Will try 1 EPHalfNo renewal
NotoriousABCPiper Perabo plays Annie Walker, a new recruit to the CIA.. .oh, wait, no, it’s WENDY Walker, a cable news producer. With a criminal defense attorney, high media blitz, etc.YesFullNo renewal
PitchFOXFirst woman to play in MLB. The Bad News Bears turn pro?No4 EPsEarly cancellation
PowerlessNBCComedy about insurance adjusters dealing with damage caused by superheroes? Sounds quirky, just don’t know if it will be funny enough.YesHalfRenewal
Prison BreakFOXReboot / continuance. Cuz that went SO WELL for Heroes. PassNoHalfNo renewal
Pure GeniusCBSMillionaire plays God with hospital that will do risky procedures. Pass for me, but always room at the table for a medical drama if the stars are palatable.NoFullNo renewal
RiverdaleCWThe Archie comics. I have absolutely no clue if this is even remotely got a shot. But it’s Greg Berlanti as a producer, so I’ll give it a go.YesHalfRenewal
Shots FiredFOXThe show lists Helen Hunt and Richard Dreyfuss as being in the cast, which seems just wacky when the main “investigators” are two others. The premise is basically “Black Lives Matter” in Tennessee. But it would seem more like a movie of the week than ready for season 2?NoHalfNo renewal
Son of ZornFOXPerhaps the weirdest show of the fall, we have an animated He-man-like character trying to connect with his human son and ex-wife.Will try 1 EP4 EPsEarly cancellation
SpeechlessABCMinnie Driver, mother of three, one who is special needs. Zzzzzzzzzzz.No2 EPsEarly cancellation
StarFOXThree young singers trying to make it big. Not for me, but Empire is hugely popular with some demographics, so might work.NoHalfNo renewal
Still Star-crossedABCRomeo and Juliet part two. Doesn’t interest me, but if they give it a bit of a Game of Thrones intrigue factor, could have a hit.NoHalfRenewal
TakenNBCA young ass-kicking Liam Neeson…err, young version of Neeson’s character. Right. With Jennifer Beals. Ever since Castle, I won’t trust her in the CIA, but a one man team show that isn’t MacGyver? Sure, count me in. Just like last year with The Player.YesHalfNo renewal
This Is UsNBCEnsemble dramedy with group who share same birthday and life intersections.Will try 1 EPHalfNo renewal
Time After TimeABCH.G. Wells vs. Jack the Ripper and time travel. Hell yes. No chance at renewal but I’ll watch while it’s on.YesHalfNo renewal
TimelessNBCA team travels through time to defeat Vandal Savage…err, wait, no that’s the other time-traveling criminal show. This one has a team of three chasing somebody else. No matter, it’s time travel! I’m in!YesHalfNo renewal
Training DayCBSBill Paxton as a morally questionable detective. Umm. Sorry, can’t see it. I’m out.NoHalfNo renewal
Trial and ErrorNBCNew York lawyer goes to Southern town for murder case. With Lithgow. If Lithgow was the lawyer, I’d think, “Great! Give it a go!”. I wouldn’t watch, but I could see it. Instead, they have the lawyer being the young Michael J. Fox type role from Doc Hollywood or something. I don’t see it gelling.No4 EPsEarly cancellation

Here’s a summary of my predictions by network:

NetworkTotalWon’t watchTry 1 EPWill watch4 EPsHalf-seasonFull seasonEarly cancelNo renewalRenewal
FOX11542641641
ABC10622541532
NBC11434290245
CBS9630252252
CW3021030021
Total442114915254151811

Looks like I’m going to give Fox and NBC a try this year. Although with estimating five renewals, I am sure I am giving NBC way too much credit to stick with shows long enough to do that.