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Reading “Big Box Reuse” by Julia Christensen – Chapter 4

The PolyBlog
March 7 2018

Chapter 4 starts a second section of the book dealing with networks, particularly with the idea that the location is not just the “store shell” so much as the building, a parking lot, and beyond…the whole background.

This Chapter did a quick overview of three Charter schools in Buffalo (NY), Charlotte (NC), and Laramie (WY), most of which want to fly under the radar — two of the spoke only on the question of anonymity, although they were happy to give tours, etc. What I found particularly interesting with these examples was that they started with a relatively new entity — the fledgling school — looking for a site to lease. They didn’t have the money to buy, couldn’t build, etc. and basically didn’t have the full capital to take on the whole project at once. As a startup, they could commit to a lease, and then grow the business and organization towards later purchase.

Some of the aspects that were not immediately obvious:

  1. Repurposing an old vacant school was often an obvious and alternate choice, but with challenges for renovations to bring them up to code for electricity, plumbing, etc.;
  2. The Walmart or Kmart sites were immediately fully accessible for persons with disabilities, with options for everything on a single floor, wide hallways, etc.;
  3. Lighting was often an issue for interior rooms, so design often defaulted to hollow squares where the centre could be a gym or cafeteria, leaving the classrooms around exterior walls where windows could be cut out; and,
  4. While the big box stores were up to code, often the plumbing for washrooms were limited to a couple of areas and the plumbing was buried in concrete, so extra trenches have to be dug early to reach the extra requirements for a school.

I also found the idea of community not an obvious element, not so much of the Big Box, but of the nature of a Charter school. Since they are not limited to geographic catch-basins (like neighbourhoods for typical schools) but rather open to the entire city to attend, transport often becomes incredibly important. Meaning the extra parking spots for drop-off and pick-up make things much easier. Equally, because so many of the kids need transport-by-parents, the Schools need to offer extensive before- and after-school care, way more than normal schools. Which means they need spaces for that to function. However, contrasting that, many “blended” families or non-cohesive families (divorced parents with shared custody for example, living in different areas of the city) find the option great, since they don’t all live in a single “local” neighbourhood.

Overall, though, I think it was the “initial lease” and the ability to build as they grow which made it so interesting. In some cases, walls around the interior school belied the fact that behind was just empty “open” warehouse-like space…ready for the next round of school rooms to be built or a gym or a special area for technology, automotive, or creative arts, all of which can be built and worked on without disrupting the rest of the school — the school can be open while other renovations are going on. Our son’s school has just gone through massive renovations within an existing space, and it really disrupted life around them. But once they reached a certain critical mass, the last areas were empty spaces that could be worked on separately. Unfortunately, that required moving some kids to portables, something that doesn’t need to happen in a Big Box that can just build, build, build inside. Plus they are doing it inside, even when weather is bad. Certainly a totally different project than trying to renovate an old abandoned public school.

Posted in Learning and Ideas | Tagged book review, goals, learning, personal development | Leave a reply

Articles I Like: The Law of Unintended Consequences: Shakespeare, Cobra Breeding, and a Tower in Pisa

The PolyBlog
March 4 2018

This is another article from Farnam Street, and I confess up until a few days ago, I’d never heard of them. Run by a guy named Shane Parrish, he’s based here in Ottawa. Some really fascinating stuff on there, with decent curation and a lot of links. This article highlights that:

Not all of our grand schemes turn out like we planned. In fact, sometimes things go horribly awry. In this article, we tackle unintended consequences and how to minimize them in our own decision making.

The Law of Unintended Consequences: Shakespeare, Cobra Breeding, and a Tower in Pisa | Farnam Street

You might think that the article is going to be about train wreck ideas or the butterfly effect causing tsunamis. Not really. In fact, I would say it is more about linear thinking from good intentions to good outcomes, without taking into account side effects. Some unknown, some unforeseeable, some just missed because they stopped thinking early. The article has a great quote from a book by William A. Sherden:

Sometimes unintended consequences are catastrophic, sometimes beneficial. Occasionally their impacts are imperceptible, at other times colossal. Large events frequently have a number of unintended consequences, but even small events can trigger them. There are numerous instances of purposeful deeds completely backfiring, causing the exact opposite of what was intended.

The conclusion is simple — systems thinking or second-order thinking is needed, but the article doesn’t pay much attention to the fact that often the culprit lies in defining the system too narrowly, when in fact the small system is part of a larger system, and it is the larger system that often has the other effects (like the examples of releasing a predator into a land to control one local population, not realizing that the predator will spread into the larger system). What I do like is the idea that sometimes the failure is in over-estimating the size of the system, assuming there are too many variables, and thus not trying at all to figure out ancillary effects.

Yet, if we know they exist (or in hindsight think we should have), the article explains some of the most common reasons:

Sociologist Robert K. Merton has identified five potential causes of consequences we failed to see:

Our ignorance of the precise manner in which systems work.

Analytical errors or a failure to use Bayesian thinking (not updating our beliefs in light of new information).

Focusing on short-term gain while forgetting long-term consequences.

The requirement for or prohibition of certain actions, despite the potential long-term results.

The creation of self-defeating prophecies (for example, due to worry about inflation, a central bank announces that it will take drastic action, thereby accidentally causing crippling deflation amidst the panic).

However, the article goes even further, adding in over-reliance on models and predictions (mistaking the map for the territory), survivorship bias, the compounding effect of consequences, denial, failure to account for base rates, curiosity, or the tendency to want to do something.

Of course, the article leads to the article I shared earlier (Articles I Like: Mental Models – The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)), and the use of other mental models to help prevent a failure to consider other effects.

Cool stuff, love the site.

Posted in Goals | Tagged analysis, consequences, curation, ideas, learning | Leave a reply

Articles I Like: Mental Models – The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

The PolyBlog
March 3 2018

If you’re interested in goals and theory the way I am, then an article about “cross-training for the mind” and different ways of thinking in various disciplines is like catnip. When I saw the article, and that it was going to work through 113 different mental models, I couldn’t NOT click on that bait. In fact, their goal in the article is based on the following:

The overarching goal is to build a powerful “tree” of the mind with strong and deep roots, a massive trunk, and lots of sturdy branches. We use this tree to hang the “leaves” of experience we acquire, directly and vicariously, throughout our lifetimes: the scenarios, decisions, problems, and solutions arising in any human life.

Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained)

The more mental models you have, the more roots and branches you have to build on. What types of models? How about:

General Thinking Concepts (11)

  1. Inversion
  2. Falsification / Confirmation Bias
  3. Circle of Competence
  4. The Principle of Parsimony (Occam’s Razor)
  5. Hanlon’s Razor
  6. Second-Order Thinking
  7. The Map Is Not the Territory
  8. Thought Experiments
  9. Mr. Market
  10. Probabilistic Thinking (See also: Numeracy/Bayesian Updating)
  11. Default Status

Numeracy (14)

  1. Permutations and Combinations
  2. Algebraic Equivalence
  3. Randomness
  4. Stochastic Processes (Poisson, Markov, Random Walk)
  5. Compounding
  6. Multiplying by Zero
  7. Churn
  8. Law of Large Numbers
  9. Bell Curve/Normal Distribution
  10. Power Laws
  11. Fat-Tailed Processes (Extremistan)
  12. Bayesian Updating
  13. Regression to the Mean
  14. Order of Magnitude

Systems (22)

  1. Scale
  2. Law of Diminishing Returns
  3. Pareto Principle
  4. Feedback Loops (and Homeostasis)
  5. Chaos Dynamics (Sensitivity to Initial Conditions)
  6. Preferential Attachment (Cumulative Advantage)
  7. Emergence
  8. Irreducibility
  9. Tragedy of the Commons
  10. Gresham’s Law
  11. Algorithms
  12. Fragility – Robustness – Antifragility
  13. Backup Systems/Redundancy
  14. Margin of Safety
  15. Criticality
  16. Network Effects
  17. Black Swan
  18. Via Negativa – Omission/Removal/Avoidance of Harm
  19. The Lindy Effect
  20. Renormalization Group
  21. Spring-loading
  22. Complex Adaptive Systems

Physical World (9)

  1. Laws of Thermodynamics
  2. Reciprocity
  3. Velocity
  4. Relativity
  5. Activation Energy
  6. Catalysts
  7. Leverage
  8. Inertia
  9. Alloying

The Biological World (15)

  1. Incentives
  2. Cooperation (Including Symbiosis)
  3. Tendency to Minimize Energy Output (Mental & Physical)
  4. Adaptation
  5. Evolution by Natural Selection
  6. The Red Queen Effect (Co-evolutionary Arms Race)
  7. Replication
  8. Hierarchical and Other Organizing Instincts
  9. Self-Preservation Instincts
  10. Simple Physiological Reward-Seeking
  11. Exaptation
  12. Extinction
  13. Ecosystems
  14. Niches
  15. Dunbar’s Number

Human Nature & Judgment (23)

  1. Trust
  2. Bias from Incentives
  3. Pavlovian Mere Association
  4. Tendency to Feel Envy & Jealousy
  5. Tendency to Distort Due to Liking/Loving or Disliking/Hating
  6. Denial 
  7. Availability Heuristic
  8. Representativeness Heuristic
    1. Failure to Account for Base Rates
    2. Tendency to Stereotype 
    3. Failure to See False Conjunctions
  9. Social Proof (Safety in Numbers)
  10. Narrative Instinct
  11. Curiosity Instinct
  12. Language Instinct
  13. First-Conclusion Bias
  14. Tendency to Overgeneralize from Small Samples
  15. Relative Satisfaction/Misery Tendencies
  16. Commitment & Consistency Bias
  17. Hindsight Bias
  18. Sensitivity to Fairness
  19. Tendency to Overestimate Consistency of Behavior (Fundamental Attribution Error)
  20. Influence of Authority
  21. Influence of Stress (Including Breaking Points)
  22. Survivorship Bias
  23. Tendency to Want to Do Something (Fight/Flight, Intervention, Demonstration of Value, etc.)

Microeconomics & Strategy (14)

  1. Opportunity Costs
  2. Creative Destruction
  3. Comparative Advantage
  4. Specialization (Pin Factory)
  5. Seizing the Middle
  6. Trademarks, Patents, and Copyrights
  7. Double-Entry Bookkeeping
  8. Utility (Marginal, Diminishing, Increasing)
  9. Bottlenecks
  10. Prisoner’s Dilemma
  11. Bribery
  12. Arbitrage
  13. Supply and Demand
  14. Scarcity

Military & War (5)

  1. Seeing the Front
  2. Asymmetric Warfare
  3. Two-Front War
  4. Counterinsurgency
  5. Mutually Assured Destruction

The article has lots of links to the models to explain them. It’s like a treasure-trove of mental improvement rabbit-holes. And perhaps the grounds for 113 new blog posts by me as I work through each of them! Mind-blowing.

Posted in Goals | Tagged analysis, goals, ideas, learning, mental models, motivation, thinking | Leave a reply

Reading “Big Box Reuse” by Julia Christensen – Chapter 3

The PolyBlog
March 2 2018

Chapter 3 is an interesting chapter on Wisconsin Rapids. The town profile is basically that of an old mill town, with a huge philanthropy base from two key families in town who owned the mills in days gone by, and a mostly summer tourism influx. Other than that, it is has a strong aging population and huge summer crowd, with upwards of 20% seniors in the general population.

The big box in question is again a former Walmart, and as with the examples that belied my original expectation of “out of business” big box stores, this is another one where the initial store was successful and eventually moved to a bigger store in other location, leaving the previous one sitting empty. What made this a bit unique in my view though is that the Walmart is relatively “downtown”.

So here’s the basic skinny…Walmart left, and a shell remained. It had a leaky roof, but the rest of the place was structurally sound. A community group was trying to build a seniors centre where three large service providers could co-locate to serve mostly shared clientele across their base. Yet their first instinct was not to occupy the old box space but to build something entirely new. When they couldn’t secure funding for that, they looked at the Walmart space and found ways to reconfigure it to attract funding.

For example, one of the regional groups was more likely to fund them if they were revitalizing an existing space than building new. Public support would be key to all the funding options, and a huge effort was made by media, government, advocacy groups to get everyone on board. Many were opposed to it being “Walmart-quality” and the optics, but once the designs were in place, it seemed viable. In the end, they had pretty creative financing.

Reading the chapter, it is obvious that “something” was going to happen, the question really was “where”. In the end, the Walmart space was way more costly than building new, but the redevelopment aspects attracted different sources of money. But for me, I found three really interesting factors to be:

a. The importance of the aesthetic redesign so people would stop seeing it as the Walmart space;

b. The renting out of space to non-retail renters which allow the three core service providers to basically generate some income to cover usage costs for other parts of the building (i.e. sustainability); and,

c. The creative idea to tear down PART of the building so that the remaining space would all be used, and there wouldn’t be the appearance of “empty unused space” as the facility was actually bigger than they needed.

This example comes closest to what I hoped for in the initial premise of the book — examples where an existing SPACE gets repurposed and flourishes (as opposed to simply repurposing land or putting in a different retailer).

Onward…

Posted in Learning and Ideas | Tagged book review, goals, learning, personal development | Leave a reply

Articles I Like: Dread accompanies me through life

The PolyBlog
February 24 2018

Firefox has this little feature when you pull up its built-in home page with a search engine box — just below the box is your recently viewed webpages, nothing unusual there, but between the search and history are three articles that Firefox thinks might be of interest to you. I have no idea if they are actually using an algorithm of the web history and past searches, or just curating interesting stories, but I often find one or more of the stories worthy of clicking. I figured initially that it was just clickbait, but most of the time, when I’ve actually clicked, the article has been worth the click.

Take for instance one from today. The article is written by a philosophy professor and revolves around anxiety. It starts with some powerful events — the death of his parents — that are not powerful in terms of trauma but in their normalcy. He then talks about how it impacted his sense of safety, life, religion even. His view of the universe. And then talks about his journey to understand anxiety from a personal, psychological, even existential perspective, informed by the works of philosophers and psychologists.

While it doesn’t end as strongly as it starts, and it veers into philosophy and psychology in ways that will bore a lot of people, it is a very compelling cerebral contemplation of anxiety. Here are some of my favourite highlights:

I had imagined that with my father’s death, the world had exacted its pound of flesh, a tax so terrible it would be levied only once. But in 14 years, death came calling again. One God – a child’s God, mythical and compassionate – died with my father; another – an adult’s God, a God of reasonableness, the one that ensured this world would not do excessively badly by you – died with my mother.

[…]

Prompted by the production of new traumas and losses in our lives, anxieties can interact and recombine like viruses to form newer ‘strains’ that course through us, surprising us with their ferocity and visceral feel. We should not expect our anxieties to remain the same as we age; by paying close attention to their nature, their ‘look and feel’, we can track changes in ourselves and our ‘table of values’.

I learned that I respond with anxiety to this world’s offerings. I’m a better person for this knowledge of myself.[…]My trajectory through the world is thus informed, at every step, by the anxieties that afflict me.

[…]

Our anxieties rush into the mental spaces we leave open, reminding us of all that can go terribly wrong.

Dread accompanies me through life but it is not without consolation | Aeon Essays
Posted in Learning and Ideas | Tagged anxiety, ideas, learning, philosophy, religion, self, spiritualism

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