Every year, at the start of the TV season, I try to predict the outcome of the new shows. And I post my predictions for what they’re worth, knowing sometimes I go as low as 50% right and 50% wrong! Mostly because I don’t take into account differences between networks and other factors, I just go by quality or basic delivery on a viable show premise.

This year, I tried to improve my predictions with a bit more business model consideration:

• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: ABC
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: CBS
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: CW
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: Fox
• Predictions for the 2017-18 season: NBC

In the end though, what I’m really interested in are the new shows. From the lineups, it’s a quirky bunch of shows. Here’s my take on what will make it:

• ABC: The Good Doctor – Think “House” meets “Rainman”, and while I wouldn’t bet the farm on it’s renewal, it’s an in-house co-production so likely RENEWED;
• ABC: The Mayor – rapper pulls prank to get noticed, gets elected…normally I would say cancel, but also in-house for ABC with other producers they’re already in bed with, so likely RENEWED;
• ABC: Marvel’s Inhumans – ABC really wants to be in the superhero game, and this is what they have to work with, so RENEWED;
• CBS: Young Sheldon – well, duh, it could die a 1000 times and it will likely get renewed just to keep tweaking it until it works, so RENEWED;
• CBS: S.W.A.T. – With H50 and MacGyver not strong enough to continue in my view, I’m going to bet on another throwback continuing with this one, so RENEWED;
• CW: Black Lightning – It’s all Berlanti, all the time, it would be crazy to bet against it, even without the Arrowverse tie-ins, RENEWED;
• FOX: The Gifted – Fox wants to expand into the superhero world too, after their relative success with Gotham, RENEWED;
• FOX: The Orville – I’m totally on the line with this one, but they do like pseudo comic shows, even sci fi spoofs, RENEWED;
• FOX: The Resident – A medical show with hot actors? Yeah, they’ll try real hard to keep it, RENEWED;
• NBC: Champions – Two and a Half Men found an audience, this should find the same one even without Charlie Sheen, RENEWED;
• NBC: Rise – Mr. Holland’s Opus meets Glee, yep, it might find an audience, RENEWED;
• NBC: Will and Grace – duh, RENEWED;

However, I think the following shows are unlikely to find their groove:

• ABC: Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (formerly The Gospel of Kevin) – It has a Touched By An Angel feel, and there’s a demographic out there that might like it, but not enough to save it, and not at 10:00 at night – CANCELLED;
• ABC: Ten Days in the Valley – Oooh, a missing child with a mystery. How many movie cliches can you pack into a new show that isn’t owned by ABC? Bye bye, don’t let the ratings guillotine hit you on the way down – CANCELLED;
• CBS: 9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings – CANCELLED;
• CBS: Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly – CANCELLED;
• CBS: Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series – CANCELLED;
• CBS: Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years – CANCELLED;
• CW: Dynasty – while the reboot year is upon us, the CW runs young, and I don’t think they’re ready for Melrose Place without a 90210-like lead up, the various ages of the characters won’t pull them in – CANCELLED;
• CW: Life Sentence – YOLO might be a great premise that died last year with No Tomorrow ON THE SAME NETWORK, HELLO, but living with the consequences just seems too hokey a premise for the “oops you’re not dying” basis for the show – CANCELLED;
• CW: Valor – I would like to leave this one on the list as making it, and if it wasn’t the CW, I’d put it ahead of Black Lightning, with a serialized story about a failed copter mission in Somalia and flashbacks, could be great – CANCELLED;
• FOX: L.A. to Vegas – Workplace comedy? Sure. Airlines to Vegas? Umm, no – CANCELLED;
• FOX: Ghosted – Men in Black, weekly? With extra comedy? Yeah, that’s going to need a lot of work to keep it fresh – CANCELLED;
• NBC: The Brave – Elite undercover military heroes…umm, no – CANCELLED;
• NBC: A.P. Bio – bio teacher using nerds to attack the person who stole his dream job…umm, also no – CANCELLED;
• NBC: Good Girls – Thelma and Louise meets Breaking Bad? … can I get a “hell, no” – CANCELLED?
• NBC: Law & Order: True Crime – great idea, lousy premise for the case – CANCELLED;
• NBC: Reverie – Save people from a VR game? Love the premise, hate its chances – CANCELLED;

Of the new shows, I’m predicting 12 will make it and 16 won’t. That still seems high, likely more around 8 make it and 20 won’t. But hard to tell. Guess I’ll see at the end of the season.

Last year, Fox was a bloodbath. Of 24 shows, they cancelled 11 and renewed 13. And so this year, they kind of need those 13 to keep delivering.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

• Bob’s Burgers
• Brooklyn Nine-Nine
• Empire
• Family Guy
• Gotham
• Lucifer
• New Girl
• Star
• The Exorcist
• The Last Man on Earth
• The Mick
• The Simpsons

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

• Lethal Weapon – I have to think they were desperate to renew SOMETHING last year to keep this one around…it or The Exorcist should have died, and I’m betting on this not making it past S2;

New shows that I think will make it:

• The Gifted – Fox wants to expand into the superhero world too, after their relative success with Gotham;
• The Orville – I’m totally on the line with this one, but they do like pseudo comic shows, even sci fi spoofs;
• The Resident – A medical show with hot actors? Yeah, they’ll try real hard to keep it;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

• L.A. to Vegas – Workplace comedy? Sure. Airlines to Vegas? Umm, no;
• Ghosted – Men in Black, weekly? With extra comedy? Yeah, that’s going to need a lot of work to keep it fresh;

As always, red indicates shows I watch or will give a chance.

Last year, of 26 scripted shows, CBS cancelled 8 and renewed 18. However, of the 8 cancelled, 7 were new shows. Brutal. In other words, they cancelled only 1 of their pre-existing shows. Of the 18 renewals, only 2-3 were newbies; the rest were roll-overs. So, looking at CBS for this year, I want to try and take that approach into account — most existing shows are likely to make it, few newbies.

Returning shows that I think are safe for renewal:

• The Big Bang Theory
• Scorpion
• NCIS
• NCIS: New Orleans
• NCIS: Los Angeles
• Madam Secretary
• Bull
• Blue Bloods
• Kevin Can Wait
• Superior Donuts
• Criminal Minds

Returning shows I think will be cancelled:

• Hawaii Five-O – it has to die sometime;
• MacGyver – I was sure it would die last year and didn’t;

New shows that I think will make it:

• Young Sheldon – well, duh, it could die a 1000 times and it will likely get renewed just to keep tweaking it until it works;
• S.W.A.T. – With H50 and MacGyver not strong enough to continue in my view, I’m going to bet on another throwback continuing with this one;

New shows that I think will get cancelled:

• 9JKL – I love the main star, and everyone wants their family sitcom to work, but not this one about moving to New York and living between parents and siblings;
• Me, Myself and I – The time stamp world of three different times in one’s life sounds intriguing, and I love John Larroquette, but doesn’t look like it will gel quickly;
• Seal Team – It was a toss up with S.W.A.T., but I’m not convinced David B is right for the series;
• Wisdom of the Crowd – Tech approaches to crime fighting, similar to a dozen other shows that have tried and failed to merge the two in the last five or six years;

Ones shown in red are ones that I either watch or will give a chance.